Canadian Home Sales Fall 2.3% in September 2026 as CREA Cuts Its Forecast a Third Time

Canadian home sales fell 2.3% in September 2026 from August, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported on October 16. The national average sale price came in at $666,538, down 1.6% from a year earlier, and CREA cut its 2026 sales forecast for the third time this year.

The trigger is the jump in fixed mortgage rates since late summer. With the Canadian dollar trading near 71 US cents, the September numbers matter for every Canadian weighing a sale at home against a purchase in Sint Maarten or Saint-Martin.

The numbers

CREA's September 2026 national figures, released October 16:

• Home sales: down 2.3% month over month, after a 0.7% dip in August. On an actual, not seasonally adjusted basis, sales were 7.7% below September 2025.

• MLS Home Price Index: down 0.4% from August and down 3.4% year over year.

• Average sale price: $666,538, down 1.6% year over year.

• New listings: down 1.8% month over month.

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 48.8%, from 49.1% in August, below the long-term average of 54.7%.

• Inventory: 4.9 months nationally, close to the long-term norm.

The forecast is where the mood shifted. CREA now expects 444,530 sales in 2026, a 5.2% decline from 2025. In July it had called for a drop of only 1.4%. It sees the national average price at $681,681 for the year, up just 0.2%, with Ontario prices down 3% and British Columbia down 0.8%. For 2027 it projects a 4.4% rebound in sales and a 1.2% rise in the average price. The full revision is in CREA's forecast release.

"After a four-month run of modestly positive progress, many of Canada's housing markets took a step back in September," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist, adding that "this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines."

Why it matters for Canadian buyers in the Caribbean

Three numbers move together here: Canadian home prices, Canadian mortgage rates and the loonie.

Rates. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which drives fixed mortgage pricing, climbed above 3.6% by early October from about 2.6% earlier in the year, and CIBC and TD raised select fixed rates. The Bank of Canada holds its next decision on October 28. Markets do not expect a move then, but price a quarter-point hike in December, Reuters reported.

The loonie. The Canadian dollar traded around C$1.415 per US dollar on October 16, about 70.7 US cents, after touching roughly C$1.43 earlier in the month, its weakest level in about a year and a half. Dutch-side property in Sint Maarten is priced in US dollars. A US$800,000 condo in Simpson Bay or Cupecoy costs about C$1.13 million at today's rate, before closing costs of around 5%.

Equity. Many of our Canadian clients fund a Caribbean purchase by selling, or borrowing against, a home in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal. A 3.4% annual drop in the benchmark price, with more listings than buyers in many cities, means less equity and a longer sale.

Our read

The September report is not a crash. It is a slow market getting slower. Sellers in Ontario face a buyer's market, and CREA's own chair, Garry Bhaura, said a careful pricing strategy "will become even more important." Our advice to Canadian clients is the same one we give sellers here: price to the market you have, not the one you had in 2022.

For Canadians who have already sold, or who hold US dollars, the picture is different. Their purchasing power in Sint Maarten is set in US dollars and has not changed. For those still converting from Canadian dollars, the exchange rate is now as important as the asking price. This is not financial advice, and currency moves both ways, but we see more Canadian clients asking us to hold offers open while they time a conversion or a sale at home.

The French side adds a second currency: Saint-Martin property is priced in euros, so Canadian buyers in Orient Bay or Terres Basses are exposed to the euro, not the US dollar. If you are comparing both sides, see our buyer's guide or ask our team for a cost comparison in Canadian dollars.

Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association, monthly statistics and forecast release, October 16, 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, October 16, 2026; BNN Bloomberg, October 16, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Trends, October 1, 2026; Trading Economics, USD/CAD, October 16, 2026.