Caribbean Tourism, First Half of 2026: Stayovers Up Just 1.9%, Cruise Up 11%, Sint Maarten Air Arrivals Up 21%

Caribbean stayover arrivals grew just 1.9% in the first half of 2026, to about 18.9 million, according to Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) figures presented at its State of the Tourism Industry Conference, held October 5 to 9 in Georgetown, Guyana. Cruise visits rose 11% to a record of about 21.7 million.

Over the same six months, Sint Maarten's air arrivals grew 21.4%. For owners who rent, that gap between the island and the region is the story.

The numbers

The Caribbean, January to June 2026 (CTO, as reported by the Jamaica Gleaner on October 13):

• Stayover arrivals: about 18.9 million, up 1.9% from 18.6 million a year earlier.

• By quarter: up 4.1% in the first quarter (about 10 million), down 0.4% in the second (about 8.9 million), against a strong second quarter of 2025.

• Cruise passenger visits: about 21.7 million, up 11%. Up 12% in the first quarter and 9.3% in the second; 19 of 24 reporting destinations grew.

• United States: 9.18 million stayovers, 48.4% of the total, up 1.6%.

• Canada: 1.77 million, up 5.9%.

• Europe: 2.56 million, up 0.4%.

• South America: 1.19 million, up 19.5%, the fastest-growing source market.

• Full-year outlook: stayovers up 2 to 3%, approaching 36 million; cruise up 5 to 7%. In April, the CTO had forecast 3 to 4% stayover growth for 2026.

Sint Maarten, January to June 2026 (Department of Statistics, STAT, via SMN News):

• Air arrivals: 566,722, up 21.4%.

• Second quarter: 251,957 air arrivals, up about 20%, in a quarter when regional stayovers fell 0.4%.

• Cruise passengers: 993,649, up 13.9%, with growth slowing to 3.7% in the second quarter.

Two caveats. STAT counts arriving air passengers, which is not exactly the CTO's stayover measure. And Immigration upgraded its arrival counting in late 2024, so part of the island's growth reflects better data.

Why it matters

The region is flattening, led by the US. Nearly half of Caribbean visitors are American, and that market grew 1.6%. When the largest source market barely grows, destinations compete harder for the same guests, and the ones with seats, product and price win.

Sint Maarten won the first half. The island's gains line up with the airlift added for the 2025 to 2026 season: JetBlue from Fort Lauderdale, American and United from Chicago, Southwest from Orlando and Baltimore. Air seats are what fill villas in Terres Basses and condos in Simpson Bay, Maho and Cupecoy.

Canada is a bright spot. Canadian arrivals grew almost four times faster than American ones, even with a weak Canadian dollar. Canada is one of our main buyer markets, and visitors often become owners.

Cruise numbers do not rent your property. The CTO's research director, Aliyyah Shakeer, noted that cruise visits are not unique visitors, since passengers are counted at each stop, and that fast cruise growth does not automatically bring proportional benefits to local economies. Front Street benefits. Rental calendars depend on stayovers.

Our read

The first half of 2026 confirms what we see on the ground: Sint Maarten is taking share in a region whose overall demand is barely growing. That supports rental income and, over time, prices for well-located property.

It will not grow at 20% forever. Once the new routes are a full year old, the comparisons get harder, and a regional slowdown led by the US market will reach us eventually. We would plan 2027 rental budgets on more modest growth, and we tell buyers the same thing every time: buy a property that works in an average year.

For owners heading into the winter season, the source-market split is worth acting on. American demand is steady, not rising; Canadian and South American demand is growing. Listings, pricing and minimum stays should reflect who is actually booking. If you want help with that, our rental management team does it every day.

Sources: Caribbean Tourism Organization figures presented at SOTIC 2026, as reported by the Jamaica Gleaner (October 13, 2026) and Streamline (October 13, 2026); Department of Statistics Sint Maarten (STAT), first-half 2026 release, via SMN News (August 23, 2026); CTO forecast of April 2, 2026.