Toronto Home Prices Down 4.5% and a 71-Cent Loonie: The Math for Canadian Buyers in Sint Maarten
Updated: 5 days ago
Toronto home prices slipped again in August, the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on September 2, and the Canadian dollar fell to about 71 US cents in late September. For Canadians weighing a Caribbean purchase, the math this fall is simple: home equity is flat, borrowing costs at home are steady for now, and every US dollar costs more.
The numbers
Greater Toronto, August 2026 (TRREB, released September 3):
5,057 sales, down 2.1% from August 2025
12,075 new listings, down 14.1% year over year
Average selling price $993,410 (CAD), down 2.7% year over year
MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark down 4.5% year over year, roughly flat on July
Canada, August 2026 (CREA, released September 15):
Sales down 0.7% from July; actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales down 6.9% year over year
New listings up 3.3% month over month; sales-to-new-listings ratio 49.1%
4.8 months of inventory
National MLS Home Price Index down 3% year over year; average sale price $668,219, up 0.6%
Rates and currency:
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2. It noted CPI inflation around 3%, mostly from gasoline, and a 3.3% rebound in second-quarter GDP. Next decision: October 28.
The US Federal Reserve went the other way on September 16, raising its target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
The gap between the two pushed the loonie to about 70.7 US cents on September 23 (Money.ca, via Yahoo Finance Canada). At that rate, US$10,000 costs roughly C$14,000 before bank spreads.
Why it matters
Three things move a Canadian buyer's budget for Sint Maarten: the value of the home they already own, the cost of borrowing against it, and the exchange rate. Right now two of the three are working against them.
Equity. A Toronto seller today is selling into a market where the benchmark price is 4.5% lower than a year ago. The good news, in TRREB's own reading, is that listings are falling faster than sales, which usually comes before prices firm up. CREA's senior economist Shaun Cathcart was more cautious, pointing to rising inflation risks and a rate hike that markets have already priced in.
Currency. Property on the Dutch side of the island is priced in US dollars. At 0.707, a US$500,000 condo in Simpson Bay or Cupecoy costs about C$707,000 before closing costs. The average GTA sale of $993,410 converts to roughly US$702,000. On the French side, prices are in euros, so the CAD/EUR rate matters instead.
Borrowing. A common route for Canadian buyers is a home-equity line or a refinance in Canada rather than a local mortgage. With the Bank of Canada on hold at 2.25%, those lines have been stable. If the market is right about a hike, that changes. This is not financial advice, and anyone planning to borrow at home should talk to their own lender before signing an offer here.
Our read
We would not rush a purchase to beat the currency, and we would not wait for the loonie to "come back" either. Nobody times FX well. What we see work is simpler: buyers who lock their Canadian financing first, move funds in two or three tranches rather than one, and use a currency specialist instead of a retail bank spread on a six-figure transfer.
Snowbird demand has a direct effect on the rental side. A weaker loonie makes the season in Florida and the Caribbean more expensive for Canadians, and some will shorten stays. For owners here who rent to Canadians, that argues for flexible minimum stays this winter rather than fixed monthly blocks.
For buyers, the US-dollar pricing on the Dutch side cuts both ways. It costs more today. It also means the asset is held in US dollars, which some buyers see as a hedge against their home currency. Browse current listings in our Sint Maarten real estate section, or contact our team to run the numbers in Canadian dollars.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch, August 2026 (released September 3, 2026); CREA national statistics, August 2026 (released September 15, 2026); Bank of Canada, rate announcement of September 2, 2026; US Federal Reserve, FOMC statement of September 16, 2026; Money.ca via Yahoo Finance Canada, September 23, 2026.
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