US Home Prices Up 1.9% in July, New York Up 5.8%: The Case-Shiller Numbers as Mortgage Rates Hit 7.28%

3 days ago

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US home prices rose 1.9% in the year to July, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Index released on September 29. New York was the second-strongest of the 20 major metros, up 5.8%. But prices have now trailed inflation for 14 months in a row, and mortgage rates have jumped since July: Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.28% on October 1.

The numbers

National index: +1.9% year over year in July, up from +1.6% in June.
20-City Composite: +2.5% (June: +2.2%). 10-City Composite: +3.4% (June: +3.0%).
Month over month, seasonally adjusted: national +0.3%, 20-City +0.3%.
Strongest metros: Chicago +6.9%, New York +5.8%, Cleveland +4.2%.
Weakest metros: Seattle −1.6%, Las Vegas −1.3%, Denver −1.1%.
After inflation: with inflation at 3.4%, home values fell in real terms for the 14th consecutive month.
Contracts: the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.3% in August but was 4.7% lower than a year earlier. In the Northeast, signings fell 4.2% on the month (released September 17).
Mortgages: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.28% on October 1, the highest since November 2023, against 6.34% a year ago.

What happened

Case-Shiller runs two months behind, so July's figures mostly reflect deals agreed in late spring, when borrowing was cheaper. Since then the bond market has sold off hard. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on October 1, its highest since 2002, and mortgage rates followed it up.

NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun said buyers "steadily entered into contracts in August even though mortgage rates increased", but that higher rates were offsetting gains in jobs and incomes. He put transactions at roughly 30% below pre-pandemic levels, and noted that the Northeast and Midwest, where prices are rising fastest, also posted the steepest declines in contract activity.

The split is regional. Chicago, New York and Cleveland lead; Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver are below last year. The full release is on the S&P Dow Jones Indices site.

Why US home prices matter for buyers in Sint Maarten

A large share of our buyers fund an island purchase with equity from a home in the US. Three points from this release.

New York owners are negotiating from strength. A 5.8% annual gain in the New York metro, with tight inventory, means many Tri-State owners have more equity than a year ago. Selling a primary or second home there and buying on the island in cash avoids borrowing against it at today's rates.

Owners in softer metros need a realistic number. In Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver, prices are lower than a year ago. If you plan to sell there to buy here, get a current valuation before you set an island budget.

Real values are slipping. Fourteen months of price gains below inflation means US housing is quietly losing purchasing power. That does not make Caribbean property a safe haven; the island has its own risks, from hurricane exposure and insurance costs to slower resale. But it changes the comparison for anyone deciding where to hold a second property. This is not financial advice.

Our read

The July data looks better than the US market feels today. Rates have moved sharply since early summer, and the next Case-Shiller releases will show how much of that reaches prices, especially in the expensive Northeast metros.

For our clients the practical message is simple. If you are planning to sell in New York or the Northeast and buy in Sint Maarten, the numbers support acting while your local market is still firm rather than waiting for rates to fall. If you own in a weaker metro, start with a realistic valuation and plan the island purchase around it.

The island market does not move month by month with US housing. Demand in Simpson Bay, Cupecoy, Indigo Bay and the French side is driven by tourism, rental performance and buyers who pay cash. If you want to see what your US equity buys here today, start with our current listings or talk to our team.

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Cotality, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, September 29, 2026; National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales, September 17, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 1, 2026; Reuters, October 1, 2026.