US Mortgage Rates Fall to 7.18%, a Third Straight Drop, as the 10-Year Treasury Yield Slides to 4.84% After the Midterms

US mortgage rates fell for a third straight week. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average dropped to 7.18% on November 5, 2026, from 7.24% a week earlier and from October's high of 7.40%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which touched its highest level since 2002 a month ago, was down to 4.84% on Thursday. It is the best week for borrowers in some time, and it rests on a bet that has not paid out yet.

The numbers: US mortgage rates and bond yields

From Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released November 5:

• 30-year fixed: 7.18%, down from 7.24%. A year ago: 6.22%.

• 15-year fixed: 6.57%, down from 6.60%. A year ago: 5.50%.

The wider picture, as of this week:

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.84% at midday Thursday, its lowest since early September, per the Associated Press. It was above 5.30% in early October, and 3.97% before the war with Iran.

• Brent crude: fell 8.7% in one session to settle at $94.62, its lowest close since August 31.

• Fed funds: 3.75% to 4.00%, held on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with both dissenters wanting a hike. The next decision is December 9.

• December hike odds: 80.7% on CME FedWatch as of November 5.

• Dollar index: 101.22, with the euro near $1.126, on November 5.

• Mortgage applications: the Mortgage Bankers Association's measure of purchase loans is down 19% from a year ago. Refinancing is down 60%.

The trigger was the US midterm elections. Investors read Democratic gains as pressure for a negotiated end to the Iran war, which pushed oil lower, and lower oil eases the inflation fears that drove yields up. "Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. It remains an expectation, though, not an agreement. Reuters quoted an Iranian official saying the two sides remain far apart.

Why it matters for US owners and Caribbean buyers

The rate is better. The market has not noticed. On a $400,000 loan, 7.18% costs about $60 a month less than 7.40%, and about $255 more than a year ago. Zillow estimates October pending sales fell 16.8% from a year earlier, and Redfin's median sale price is down 0.4%. "Prospective borrowers may be holding off decisions until rates and economic and political conditions settle," said Bob Broeksmit, president of the MBA. If you plan to sell in New York, New Jersey or Florida to fund a purchase here, plan for a slow sale and price it accordingly.

Long rates and the Fed are moving apart. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield, not the fed funds rate. So rates can ease even with a December hike priced at about 80%. A strong jobs report could change that quickly. The October report, due November 6, was still ahead as we went to press.

The island feels this too. The Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten raised its rate to 4.50% on September 17, the day after the Fed's September hike, and in June it described its rate as 50 basis points above the US federal funds rate. A Fed hike on December 9 would put that question back on the CBCS table. The Caribbean guilder is pegged at 1.79 per US dollar, so US policy reaches local lending directly.

A softer dollar cuts one way on the French side. At $1.126 per euro, a €1,000,000 villa in Terres Basses costs about US$1.13 million. Dollar buyers should watch that rate as closely as any mortgage quote.

Our read

Many of our American buyers pay cash, from a US home sale or a portfolio, so a 7.18% mortgage does not stop them. What it does is set the price and speed of the sale that funds the purchase. Three weeks of lower rates help at the margin. We would not plan around them.

A 30-year rate of 5.98% is what the market saw in late February, before the oil shock fully fed through. Getting back there needs oil, inflation and the Fed to cooperate, and the Fed is still leaning toward a hike. If your purchase here works at today's numbers, it does not need a rate miracle. If it only works at 6%, wait. This is not financial advice, and a US lender or adviser should check your own figures.

To see what your budget buys on the island, start with our listings or talk to our team.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (November 5, 2026); Associated Press via The Gleaner (November 6, 2026); Scotsman Guide (November 5, 2026); Real Estate News (November 5, 2026); Finimize, CME FedWatch data (November 5, 2026); Diya TV with Reuters (November 2026); Admirals, FOMC coverage (October 28, 2026); Curaçao Chronicle on the CBCS (June 19, 2026). Monthly payment estimates by Andreu Realty.