US Mortgage Rates Hit 7.40%, Highest Since 2023, as Fed Minutes Signal Another Hike by Year End

US mortgage rates rose for another week. Freddie Mac reported on October 8 that the average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.40%, up from 7.28% a week earlier and the highest level since November 2023. One day earlier, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed most officials expect another rate increase before the end of the year.

What happened

Mortgage rates, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026:

• 30-year fixed: 7.40%, up from 7.28% last week and 6.30% a year ago.

• 15-year fixed: 6.73%, up from 6.60% last week and 5.53% a year ago.

Fed minutes, released October 7, 2026 (meeting of September 15–16):

• The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, by a 12–0 vote.

• Most participants judged that "another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end."

• Several described the current policy rate as "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive."

• Staff estimated total PCE inflation at 3.8% in August and core PCE at 3.4%.

• The minutes noted that Treasury yields rose about 35 basis points across the 2- to 10-year range between meetings, that mortgage rates rose a bit more than the 10-year yield, and a few participants pointed to housing as a sector where financial conditions were "not supportive."

The full text is on the Federal Reserve's website, and the weekly rate series is on Freddie Mac's PMMS page. The next Fed decision is due at the October 27–28 meeting.

Why it matters

The cost of carrying a mortgage in the US has jumped in twelve months. On a US$700,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest come to about US$4,847 a month at 7.40%, against about US$4,333 at last year's 6.30%. That is roughly US$514 a month, or more than US$6,000 a year, for the same loan.

For our clients this works in three ways.

Your home market. Higher rates thin out the pool of buyers who need a loan. If you plan to sell a primary home in New York, Florida or elsewhere in the US to fund a purchase in the Caribbean, expect longer marketing times and harder negotiation on price.

Your purchase here. Many of our buyers in Sint Maarten pay cash or borrow against assets at home, often with a home equity line or a portfolio loan. Those are typically floating-rate products, and their cost rises with the Fed. Anyone planning to fund a deposit or a full purchase with borrowed money should re-run the numbers now, not at closing.

The local rate. The Caribbean guilder is pegged at 1.79 to the US dollar, so Sint Maarten's monetary policy follows Washington. The Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten raised its own rate to 4.50% on September 17, the day after the Fed's move. Local bank lending terms will reflect that over time.

A strong US dollar also cuts both ways. It makes Dutch-side property, priced in dollars, more expensive for Canadian and European buyers, while it makes French-side property, priced in euros, cheaper for Americans. This is not financial advice; speak with your lender and tax adviser before you commit.

Our read

We do not see 7.40% mortgages as a reason to stop. We see them as a reason to be precise. The Sint Maarten market has never run on cheap American mortgage money. Many of the buyers we work with fund purchases from businesses, portfolios and paid-off homes, not from a 30-year loan.

What changes is the behavior at the edges. Buyers who planned to borrow at home are taking longer, asking more questions and negotiating harder. Sellers who priced their villa or condo off last year's comparable sales should expect that conversation. In our experience, well-priced properties in Simpson Bay, Cupecoy and Dawn Beach still sell; the ones priced on hope sit.

If rates are now part of your plan, two practical steps: get a firm view of your funding cost before you make an offer, and keep a 10% deposit and roughly 5% closing costs on the Dutch side in cash. Then compare what the money buys. Our current listings are priced in US dollars on the Dutch side and in euros on the French side, and our team can walk you through both.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 8, 2026); Federal Reserve, Minutes of the FOMC meeting of September 15–16, 2026 (released October 7, 2026); Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (September 17, 2026).