Cayman Islands Real Estate Sales Reach $978 Million Through September 2026, $37 Million Short of a Record

2 days ago

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Cayman Islands real estate sales reached $978 million in the first nine months of 2026, only $37 million short of the full-year record of $1.015 billion set in 2025, according to Provenance Properties' third-quarter report, published October 7 and based on CIREBA multiple listing data. Third-quarter sales of $239 million were the highest for any third quarter on record.

Under the headline, the picture is more mixed. A good part of the volume came from closings at two new condo buildings, and the value of new contracts fell by a third.

The numbers

Cayman Islands, third quarter of 2026, unless noted (Provenance Properties, CIREBA data):

Sales, January to September: $978 million, against $1.015 billion for all of 2025.
Third-quarter sales: $239 million, up $35 million on the third quarter of 2025, from 184 sales, the same count as a year earlier.
Without the new buildings: excluding closings at The Watermark and OneGT, third-quarter sales were $217 million, the second-highest third quarter on record.
Under contract: $227 million, down from $345 million a year earlier. Provenance says several high-value listings from 2025 did not close, including a single-family home asking close to $50 million.
Condo prices: up 5% in 2026 compared with 2025, matching the 5% gain of 2025 (Dart-Oyster-Knight Frank price index).
Rents: up 3% on the third quarter of 2025. Median condo yield 5.4%, after strata fees and insurance, and below 6% for five years.
Pace: median 180 days on market; buyers paid on average 5.0% below asking.
Supply: 481 condo sales over 12 months, 445 condo units for sale, more than 100 of them off-plan or under construction.
Top sale: $11.8 million for a 4,050-square-foot three-bedroom at The Watermark on Seven Mile Beach, about $2,900 per square foot. Seven Mile Beach prices are growing faster than any other area, for the first time since 2019.

The report's own summary: "Market conditions remain favourable for sellers, although buyers continue to demonstrate price sensitivity." Figures cover transactions recorded on the CIREBA system, not every transfer in the islands. The full report is here.

Why it matters

Cayman competes with Sint Maarten for the same buyer: a North American or European owner who wants a beachfront condo or villa, a short flight from home and a property that can earn rent when they are away. When Cayman prices rise, some of those buyers start comparing.

Three signals stand out.

Completions flatter the headline. Many of this year's dollars are condos at The Watermark and OneGT that were sold off-plan earlier and only recorded at closing. They reflect demand from past years, not decisions made this quarter.

The forward indicator weakened. New contracts are the best guide to the next two quarters, and they fell 34% in value. Some of that is a few very large listings that never closed, but it still points to a slower start to 2027.

Yields are thin at the top. A median 5.4% after strata and insurance, and lower in premium locations such as Seven Mile Beach, tells you prices have run ahead of rents. Buyers there are paying for scarcity and stability more than for income.

Our read

Cayman is a strong, mature market, and a record year remains within reach. The figures we would watch are the 5% price growth and the falling pipeline of contracts: prices still rising while new deals slow is a late-cycle pattern, and buyers there are already negotiating.

For buyers weighing the two islands, the useful comparison is not the headline. It is price per square foot on the beach, what a unit nets after association fees and insurance, closing costs, and how easy it is to fly in. On the Dutch side of Sint Maarten, closing costs are commonly about 5%, including the 4% transfer tax. Simpson Bay, Cupecoy, Dawn Beach and Indigo Bay offer beachfront and marina property at price points that look different from Seven Mile Beach today.

We are not neutral, and we will not pretend Sint Maarten is right for every Cayman buyer. If you are comparing, send us the Cayman unit you are looking at and we will put a Sint Maarten equivalent next to it, with real numbers: talk to our team.

Sources: Provenance Properties, Q3 2026 Cayman Real Estate Market Report (October 7, 2026), CIREBA data and Dart-Oyster-Knight Frank indices; Caribbean Journal (October 9, 2026); Jamaica Homes News (October 10, 2026).