Toronto Home Prices October 2026: Average Down 2.7% to $1,024,108 as Sales Fall 7.9% After the Bank of Canada Hike

4 days ago

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Toronto home prices slipped again in October 2026. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported on November 4 that the average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area was $1,024,108, down 2.7% from a year earlier, while sales fell 7.9% to 5,603. The annual price decline is narrower than September's, and the Canadian dollar has recovered some ground, so the math for Canadians looking at the Caribbean is slightly better than it was a month ago.

The numbers: Toronto home prices in October

From TRREB's October 2026 Market Watch, in Canadian dollars:

Sales: 5,603, down 7.9% from 6,083 in October 2025.
Average price: $1,024,108, down 2.7% from $1,052,539.
MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark: down 4.3% year over year.
New listings: 14,173, down 11.9%. Active listings: 25,098, down 10.0%.
City of Toronto detached: average $1,603,886, down 1.2%, on 741 sales, up 0.5%.
905-region detached: average $1,199,303, down 4.7%, on 1,952 sales, down 6.2%.
GTA condo apartments: 1,385 sales, down 10.4%, average $621,400, down 5.8%.
January to October: 52,694 sales at an average of $1,025,156.

Seasonally adjusted, sales rose 1.2% from September, and new listings, the benchmark and the average price all moved up. In September, the average price was down 5.1% year over year and the benchmark 4.7%. One month does not make a turn, but the slide did not deepen.

Rates are the new element. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase since July 2023, and major banks moved prime from 4.45% to 4.70%. Canadian inflation stands at 3.1%. "You essentially have both buyers and sellers sitting on the sidelines right now," TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer told CP24. He expects the usual seasonal slowdown in November and December. TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld pointed to a Canada-U.S. trade deal as the thing that could give households a clearer outlook.

Why it matters for Canadian buyers in Sint Maarten

Property on the Dutch side is priced in US dollars, and on the French side in euros. So a Toronto seller has two numbers to watch: the sale price and the exchange rate.

The Canadian dollar traded around C$1.405 per US dollar on November 6, about 71 US cents, against about C$1.42 when we ran this calculation last month. At C$1.405:

The GTA average sale of $1,024,108 converts to about US$729,000.
A City of Toronto detached home at $1,603,886 converts to about US$1.14 million.
A GTA condo apartment at $621,400 converts to about US$442,000.

Last month the average sale converted to about US$709,000. That is roughly US$20,000 more this month, from a higher monthly average and a firmer loonie. Monthly averages bounce with the mix of homes sold, so treat this as a snapshot and not a trend.

The sale side still needs care. TRREB's 12-month trend shows 4.6 months of inventory, and Mercer says buyers have "substantial negotiating power." Detached homes in the city are holding best. Condos and the 905 are the soft spots, with 905 townhouses averaging $767,021, down 7.9%.

Higher prime also matters if you plan to draw on a home equity line for a purchase here. A quarter point is small, but it is the first move up in over three years, and Canadian officials may not be finished.

Our read

We would not wait for a Toronto bottom before looking at the island. Nobody can call it, and the last two years have punished people who tried. What we tell Canadian clients is simpler: know your net sale figure in US dollars before you shortlist anything in Simpson Bay, Cupecoy or Pelican Key. A home that sells for $1.2 million in Mississauga and a condo at US$600,000 in Maho are one calculation, and it should be done on today's rate, not last year's.

The currency swing is worth respecting. The move from C$1.42 to C$1.405 is about 1%, or roughly US$7,500 on the average GTA sale, in a single month. That is not a reason to speculate, and this is not financial advice. It is a reason to talk to your bank early about how and when you convert.

Our Sint Maarten inventory is on our listings page, and our team, licensed on both sides of the island, can run these numbers with you directly.

Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, October 2026 Market Watch (November 4, 2026); The Canadian Press via Global News (November 4, 2026); BNN Bloomberg (November 4, 2026); MTFX and Trading Economics exchange rates (November 6, 2026). US-dollar conversions by Andreu Realty.