US Home Prices August 2026: Up 2.1% Nationally, New York Up 6.2% and Chicago 6.7%, Case-Shiller Shows

US home prices rose 2.1% in the twelve months to August 2026, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index released on October 27, a touch faster than July's 1.9%. New York and Chicago led again, while four Sun Belt and Western markets posted outright declines. With inflation at 3.4%, S&P says prices have now fallen in real terms for 15 straight months.

For the many New York and Midwest owners we work with, the August US home prices data says the equity in their primary home is still growing. For Florida and Western owners, the picture is mixed.

The numbers

Annual change to August 2026, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller:

• National index: +2.1% (July: +1.9%)

• 20-City Composite: +2.7% (July: +2.5%)

• 10-City Composite: +3.6% (July: +3.4%)

Strongest metros:

• Chicago +6.7%

• New York +6.2%

• Cleveland +4.3%

• Miami +4.2%

• Boston +2.6%

Weakest metros:

• Seattle -2.0%

• Las Vegas -1.3%

• Denver -0.8%

• Tampa -0.4%

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index rose 0.28% from July, while unadjusted prices dipped 0.15%, the usual late-summer pattern. "The divergence suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices," said Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices, adding that "affordability, however, remains challenging." Detroit had no valid August reading because of recording-office delays.

Two days later, on October 29, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.24%, down from 7.32% a week earlier, its lowest level this month, but still well above the 6.17% of a year ago.

Why it matters

New York owners are sitting on real gains. A 6.2% annual rise means a New York-area home worth $1.2 million in August 2025 is worth roughly $1.27 million on the index average, about $74,000 more. Owners who bought years ago and carry a low-rate mortgage hold even more equity, and a sale, a cash-out refinance or a home equity line is how many of our clients fund a condo in Maho or a villa in Terres Basses.

Florida is splitting. Miami up 4.2% and Tampa down 0.4% shows how uneven the Florida market has become. Owners comparing a second home in Florida against Sint Maarten should look at their specific area, not the state headline, and weigh rising insurance and carrying costs on both sides.

The West is softening. Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver all fell year over year. Sellers there may need to adjust expectations before rolling proceeds into a Caribbean purchase.

Real prices are falling. Nominal gains of 2.1% against 3.4% inflation mean the average US home is losing purchasing power. That makes a hard asset priced in dollars elsewhere, with rental income attached, a fair comparison for a portion of a portfolio. Rental income in Sint Maarten is taxable, and short-term rentals carry turnover and room tax, so compare net yields, not gross.

Our read

The US market is not falling, it is grinding. Prices are still rising in the big Northeast and Midwest metros where many of our buyers live, and that keeps the pipeline of equity-funded buyers coming into our high season. With mortgage rates above 7%, few of those buyers want to finance in the Caribbean; they arrive with cash from home.

What we watch next: whether the dip in mortgage rates holds into November, and whether New York's lead survives the autumn. For now, an owner in Brooklyn, Westchester or the Chicago suburbs is in a stronger position to buy here than an owner in Tampa or Las Vegas.

If you own in the US and want a clear picture of what your equity buys in Sint Maarten today, see our current listings or contact our team.

Sources: [S&P Dow Jones Indices](https://press.spglobal.com/2026-10-27-S-P-Cotality-Case-Shiller-Index-Reports-Annual-Gain-in-August-2026), October 27, 2026; [Freddie Mac](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-decline-further-724), October 29, 2026.