Toronto Home Prices Fall 5.1% in September 2026 as Sales Drop 9% and the Loonie Sits Near 70 Cents

Toronto home prices fell again in September 2026. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported on October 6 that the average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area was $1,006,409, down 5.1% from September 2025, while sales dropped 9% to 5,040. For Canadian owners thinking about a second home in Sint Maarten, the sale side and the currency side both moved against them this month.

The numbers: TRREB, September 2026

• Sales: 5,040 homes, down 9.0% year over year.

• Average price: $1,006,409, down 5.1% from $1,060,036 a year earlier.

• MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark: down 4.7% year over year.

• New listings: 16,500, down 14.4%. Active listings: 26,131, down 9.3%.

• Detached homes (GTA): 2,399 sales, average $1,292,016, down 5.1%.

• Condo apartments (GTA): 1,316 sales, average $605,257, down 7.7%.

• City of Toronto detached: average $1,562,966, down 7.6%.

• 905-region condo apartments: average $533,654, down 12.0%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales and new listings fell from August, and both the benchmark price and the average price edged lower. All figures are in Canadian dollars and come from TRREB's September 2026 Market Watch.

In August, the average GTA price was down 4.5% year over year. September's decline is deeper, and condos remain the weakest segment, especially outside the city.

The currency: a loonie near 70 US cents

The Canadian dollar traded around C$1.42 to C$1.4245 per US dollar this week, about 70 US cents, after losing close to 3% against the US dollar over the past month. Two forces are pushing it down: the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, while the Bank of Canada has held at 2.25%, and Canadian growth has stalled, with real GDP essentially flat in July. The next Bank of Canada decision is October 28.

Why it matters for Canadian buyers

Sint Maarten property is priced in US dollars on the Dutch side, and in euros on the French side. A Canadian who sells in Toronto and buys here converts twice the bad news: a lower sale price, then a weaker currency.

Here is the plain arithmetic at C$1.42 per US dollar:

• The GTA average sale of $1,006,409 converts to about US$709,000.

• A City of Toronto detached home at the September average of $1,562,966 converts to about US$1.10 million.

• A GTA condo apartment at $605,257 converts to about US$426,000.

Compared with a year ago, the average GTA sale buys roughly 6% to 7% fewer US dollars once both the price drop and the currency move are counted. That is real money on a seven-figure decision.

The other side of the ledger: the Toronto market is not in free fall. New listings are down 14.4%, so sellers are not flooding the market, and detached homes in the 416 still sell for well over a million US dollars. Equity built over ten or twenty years of ownership is still there. It just converts at a worse rate today than it did a year ago.

Our read

We work with Canadian clients every season, and most of them are not choosing between Toronto and Sint Maarten. They are keeping a home in Canada and adding a place in the sun, or downsizing a detached house and splitting the proceeds. For that buyer, the timing question is about the exchange rate as much as the house price.

Our honest view: nobody can call the bottom of the loonie. What you can control is the sequence. Some clients sell in Toronto, hold the proceeds in Canadian dollars, and convert in tranches as the rate moves. Others lock in a purchase here with a 10% deposit and convert the balance before closing. A Dutch-side purchase also carries a 4% transfer tax and total closing costs of about 5%, so budget in US dollars from day one. This is not financial advice; talk to your bank or a currency specialist about the conversion itself.

On the property side, a City of Toronto detached sale at the September average still covers a condo at Indigo Bay, where our figures start at about $900,000, with closing costs on top. Further down the price range, a 905 condo sale at the September average converts to roughly US$376,000, which sits inside the range of the condos we currently list under $500,000. If you want to see what that money buys today, browse our current listings or ask the team for a short list in US dollars.

Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch September 2026 (October 6, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC statement and minutes (September 16 and October 7, 2026); Trading Economics and Finimize currency reports (October 8–9, 2026).